Resolution Criteria

Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, but this market resolves YES only if Powell is formally indicted. An indictment requires a grand jury to return a formal written accusation charging Powell with a crime. Resolution will be determined by official court records or credible reporting from major news outlets confirming a formal indictment has been filed. The market resolves NO if no indictment is filed by December 31, 2026.

Background

The Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas threatening a criminal indictment related to Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June. The cost of renovating two historic buildings on the National Mall has swelled to $2.5 billion, and Powell denied before Congress that luxury features were the reason. This amounts to an extraordinary escalation of President Trump's campaign against Powell, whom Trump has assailed over interest rate policy.

Considerations

Powell's term as Fed chair ends in about four months, though his term on the Fed's board of governors does not expire until 2028. The investigation is currently in the grand jury phase; an indictment is not guaranteed and would represent a significant legal escalation.