Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040? | Manifold

Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040?

9

150Ṁ135

2031

39%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to YES if brown bears (Ursus arctos) are introduced to the wild anywhere in the UK (so overseas territories do not count) by the end of 2040. Anywhere part of the UK in 2023 counts, e.g. if Scotland becomes independent then reintroduces bears, this will resolve to YES. Illegal reintroductions only count if they lead to a self-sustaining population, as has happened with beavers (i.e. someone releasing a single individual does not count).

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