Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040? | Manifold

Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040?

9

150Ṁ135

2031

39%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to YES if brown bears (Ursus arctos) are introduced to the wild anywhere in the UK (so overseas territories do not count) by the end of 2040. Anywhere part of the UK in 2023 counts, e.g. if Scotland becomes independent then reintroduces bears, this will resolve to YES. Illegal reintroductions only count if they lead to a self-sustaining population, as has happened with beavers (i.e. someone releasing a single individual does not count).

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How about if bears (or other relevant animals in your markets) are released into a huge but ultimately restricted area of Scotland? (ie there is a fence or other method to prevent predators leaving a certain territory)

@JoshuaWilkes I think I would count that as YES (the BBC uses "reintroduced wild bison" to describe a similiar situation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-62664612).

Canterbury bison environment near Blean could be expanded

Rangers say the bison, introduced in July, are already restoring the woods to their ancient state.

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