Will bears be reintroduced to the UK by the end of 2040?
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9
135
2031
39%
chance

Resolves to YES if brown bears (Ursus arctos) are introduced to the wild anywhere in the UK (so overseas territories do not count) by the end of 2040. Anywhere part of the UK in 2023 counts, e.g. if Scotland becomes independent then reintroduces bears, this will resolve to YES. Illegal reintroductions only count if they lead to a self-sustaining population, as has happened with beavers (i.e. someone releasing a single individual does not count).

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predicts YES

How about if bears (or other relevant animals in your markets) are released into a huge but ultimately restricted area of Scotland? (ie there is a fence or other method to prevent predators leaving a certain territory)