This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the most first-choice votes in the 2025 Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, scheduled for June 24, 2025.

For the purpose of this market, “first-choice votes” refers to the vote totals recorded in the initial round of ranked-choice voting (RCV) tabulation, before any candidates are eliminated or vote transfers occur. Only first-choice rankings will be considered.

This market will resolve based on the official certified results of the first round of RCV tabulation as published by the New York City Board of Elections.

If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the most first-choice votes in the 2025 Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, scheduled for June 24, 2025. "First-choice votes" refer to the vote totals recorded in the initial round of ranked-choice voting (RCV) tabulation, before any candidates are eliminated or vote transfers occur. Only first-choice rankings will be considered. The market will resolve based on the official certified results of the first round of RCV tabulation as published by the New York City Board of Elections. If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.

Background

The 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary features a competitive race intensified by ranked-choice voting, a system adopted in 2019. This method enables voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference, ensuring that the winner must secure a majority through multiple rounds of vote redistribution if initially necessary. Key candidates include former Governor Andrew Cuomo, Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, Comptroller Brad Lander, and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams. Cuomo leads in polls, focusing on affordability, policing, and housing, but faces scrutiny from past misconduct investigations. Mamdani, a rising democratic socialist, champions rent freezes, fare-free buses, and non-profit grocery stores. Lander is advocating for housing and mental health reforms, while Adams emphasizes affordable housing and crime prevention. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, previously charged and later cleared of corruption, is running as an Independent alongside Republican Curtis Sliwa and others. Ranked-choice voting aims to reduce vote-splitting and promote broader voter representation but may lead to confusion and unexpected outcomes. New York joins 17 states using this voting system in various forms, signaling a shift in how electoral choices are processed and represented across the country. (time.com)

Considerations

New York City is implementing ranked-choice voting (RCV) in its Democratic mayoral primary, a method where voters rank up to five candidates in order of preference. This system enhances democratic participation by allowing votes for less popular candidates to still influence the outcome. If no one secures a majority of first-choice votes, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated and their votes are redistributed based on the voters' next preferences. This continues until one candidate emerges with a majority. The primary features eleven candidates, including prominent figures like Andrew Cuomo, Zohran Mamdani, Adrienne Adams, and Brad Lander, but not incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent. Initial election results will be available soon after polls close on June 24, but ranked-choice tabulations won't begin until July 1 to include mail-in ballots. Final results are expected by July 15. Benefits of RCV include reduced vote-wasting and promoting broadly supported winners. However, challenges include voter comprehension, reduced transparency, and unpredictability. The city's last attempt in 2021 experienced technical issues, but officials expect a smoother process this time. (apnews.com)

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