This question resolves to the unordered pair of candidates who are the final two candidates in the NYC mayoral primary.
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| # | Trader | Total profit |
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Per my comment [here](https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/who-will-be-the-democratic-nyc-mayo#4a5dcbsc3gh).
Lander wins in any scenario where final 2 is Mamdani v Lander, which is unlikely but not that unlikely. Basically, a bet on [Mamdani and Lander] is a bet that Cuomo's supporters decide en masse to rank him only second or third with a less-likely-to-win moderate candidate (A. Adams, for example) ahead, and Cuomo gets 4th or 3rd. The polling doesn't support this but it's arguably the rational scenario because most Cuomo voters don't like him at all and just see him as a lesser evil - the exact scenario RCV is trying to prevent, but it's failing because Cuomo voters don't seem to understand how it works or otherwise are just really confused about life in general / don't know the candidates.