Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the final round margin of victory in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani. The resolution will be determined as follows:

• Cuomo 4%+: Resolves "Yes" if Andrew Cuomo wins the primary by more than 4 percentage points.

• Cuomo 0-4%: Resolves "Yes" if Andrew Cuomo wins the primary by a margin between 0% and 4% (inclusive).

• Mamdani 0-4%: Resolves "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani wins the primary by a margin between 0% and 4% (inclusive).

• Mamdani 4%+: Resolves "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani wins the primary by more than 4 percentage points.

Only one of these outcomes will resolve "Yes," corresponding to the actual margin of victory. The remaining outcomes will resolve "No." If neither candidate wins the primary, the market will resolve "N/A."

Official results from the New York City Board of Elections will be used to determine the outcome. (en.wikipedia.org)

Background

The New York City Democratic mayoral primary is scheduled for June 24, 2025. Key candidates include:

• Andrew Cuomo: Former Governor of New York, seeking a political comeback after resigning in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations. Cuomo has garnered significant support from Wall Street financiers and some former critics. (ft.com)

• Zohran Mamdani: A 33-year-old democratic socialist and state Assembly member from Queens, endorsed by U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Mamdani has energized young progressives with promises such as free child care, rent freezes, free buses, and higher taxes on the wealthy. (apnews.com)

Recent polls indicate Cuomo leading the race, with Mamdani gaining momentum among younger and progressive voters. (dataforprogress.org)

Considerations

• Ranked-Choice Voting: New York City employs a ranked-choice voting system, which may influence the final margin of victory. Voters rank candidates in order of preference, and if no candidate secures a majority in the first round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on voters' next preferences. This process continues until a candidate achieves a majority. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Polling Variability: While current polls show Cuomo leading, the dynamics of the race may shift as the primary date approaches. Historical trends suggest that early leads can change, and the impact of ranked-choice voting adds an additional layer of unpredictability. (dataforprogress.org)

• Candidate Endorsements and Debates: Endorsements from prominent figures and performance in debates can significantly influence voter preferences. For instance, Mamdani's endorsement by Ocasio-Cortez has bolstered his profile among progressive voters. (apnews.com)

Traders should monitor these factors closely, as they can affect the margin of victory and the resolution of this market.