Resolution criteria
The Democratic primary election will be held on March 17, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate receives the most votes in the primary. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/).
Background
Incumbent Jan Schakowsky, who was initially elected to the seat in 1998 and re-elected with 68.4% of the vote in 2024, is not running for re-election. The district has a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, making it the 69th most Democratic district nationally.
Recent polling from October 2025 shows Biss at 18%, Abughazaleh at 13%, and Fine at 9%, with around half of voters still undecided. As of June 30, Abughazaleh had the most cash on hand of any candidate, while Biss raised the most during the second quarter.
Considerations
The race includes 14 Democratic candidates, though only the four specified answers are included in this market. No independent polling has been completed and publicly released yet for the race, so available data comes from internal campaign polls.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,268 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2,228 | |
| 3 | Ṁ867 | |
| 4 | Ṁ664 | |
| 5 | Ṁ602 |
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Damn, Biss has a 5% small donor total of all donations vs Kat’s 70%
@JeromeHPowell I guess given she's an influencer or smth, that's not totally surprising, although I am surprised she's raised significantly more than Bliss.
@traders really, really good fundraising ##s from kat, not as good for biss for fine, fine has the most runway though....we shall see
@JeromeHPowell also why is phil andrew doing so poorly even though he's like pretty reasonable and has a good amount of money?
@realDonaldTrump because you will notice every single one of his top donors has the last name Andrews, it’s family wealth and a bit of community support in the richest part of IL9