BACKGROUND

In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The reform requires implementing legislation to establish the two new CSMs. Article 8 of the reform sets a one-year deadline for implementing laws, but this deadline is not enforceable. Until the new system is operational, the current rules remain in effect. The market at https://manifold.markets/rotatingpaguro/italy-judicial-reform-will-parliame tests whether implementing legislation will be passed by EOY 2027. This market tests whether the system will be actually operational -- i.e., whether the new CSM for prosecutors will have been constituted and held its first session.

QUESTION

By December 31, 2029, will the new Consiglio Superiore della Magistratura requirente (prosecutors' council) have been formally constituted and held its inaugural session?

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2029, credible official sources (Gazzetta Ufficiale, official communications from the CSM or the Presidency of the Republic, or the CSM's official website) confirm that the new CSM requirente has been formally constituted (members lawfully designated and the body formally installed) and has held at least one formal session.

Resolves NO if the CSM requirente has not been constituted or has not held a session by that date.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force.

NOTE

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.