Will Justice Clarence Thomas be impeached by the 118th Congress?
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Plus
17
2.7k
2025
6%
Yes - the House will pass at least one article of impeachment
4%
No - the full House will vote and reject all articles
20%
No - the relevant committee will vote and reject all articles
70%
No - the 118th Congress will end without a committee vote

This market will resolve at the earliest of:

  • the end of the term of the 118th US Congress (at noon on January 3, 2025)

  • on a final vote of the relevant committee rejecting all then-filed articles of impeachment against Justice Thomas

  • on a final vote of the full House rejecting all then-filed articles of impeachment against Justice Thomas

  • on a final vote of the full House passing at least one article of impeachment against Justice Thomas

If all of the articles filed by a congressmember against Justice Thomas are withdrawn before facing a committee vote (EDIT 2024-07-10: or if all remaining articles are withdrawn after some but not all articles are rejected), this market will remain open until the end of the congressional term, or new articles against Justice Thomas are filed and voted down.

If some but not all of the articles then filed against Justice Thomas are rejected by committee or House vote, this market will not resolve until all articles have been rejected by final vote, at least one article is passed by the full House, or the congressional term ends.

If a vote of the relevant committee, or the full House, results in all then-filed articles against Justice Thomas being rejected, this market will resolve to the corresponding "No" outcome without waiting for the end of the congressional term.

This market will use Zvi's Manifold Markets House Rules, as published at https://web.archive.org/web/20240406012212/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules, as an objective market, substituting my judgment in place of Zvi's.

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I understand these three articles to have been filed by Congressmember Ocasio-Cortez on July 9: https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/ocasio-cortez.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/OCASNY_076_xml.pdf