(M2500 bounty) Will @jollyroger182 agree that one should put substantial effort into AI safety before March 2026?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ1.5k

Feb 28

18%

chance

ALL

Resolve YES iff Jolly...

agrees that AI safety is important,
agrees that everyone should invest a substantial amount of their time/resources/... into AI safety,
is doing so herself,

... and all of these conditions apply for 48 hours straight, within February 2026, in China Standard Time.

For simplicity, it will not be counted if the time window for these conditions starts in February but ends in March. Jolly decides the resolution for the first two conditions, and I decide the last one.

If this market resolves YES, I will award up to 2500 mana for the person who substantially influences her to make this market resolve YES, including myself (excluding Jolly of course). If there are multiple people that I can't decide on, I will award a roughly equal amount of mana to each of them, up to rounding error.

Resolution is subjective, so I will not bet.

I may make any changes to this market within 24 hours after market creation, including resolving this N/A.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

14% chance

I make a contribution to AI safety that is endorsed by at least one high profile AI alignment researcher by the end of 2026

40% chance

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?

24% chance

Will someone commit violence in the name of AI safety by 2030?

60% chance

AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

24% chance

Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?

10% chance

Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?

27% chance

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2028?

28% chance

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

91% chance

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

Sort by:

🤖

@jollyroger182 your random number is: 4

Salt: gnobvvlul5t, round: 5871128 (signature 9278597ebfff360f294fe410fda9ed1a775bd9b50c1f2a97553ed8f00fb89fe9ef159025dbbafa615ed8661e6398d9cc17357b4aa2ebd7b03f9b0f1138420f086b77c0a4fbca0a0f9774e6e77aa34bfa8337207e1faa49b61f05dd3a4d2c249b)

🤖

@jollyroger182 you asked for a random integer between 1 and 10, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5871126 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5871128, salt: gnobvvlul5t.

@FairlyRandom 10

🤖

@root your random number is: 34

Salt: 4z339sgn5v4, round: 5871124 (signature a6adbd7a52667c59e1291db2c026404d28cdaf490822dfb22e16e091f4b636f09913bd0582f9dbb0079beffb1922d059126b1437bf7004534d35e6734ed83b43698c3eba9373b4edac7fc0ec8847679ca1416c1a7cf05bfe78c9ad5ad2d430c7)