Will there be a virtual state with no physical territory by 2040?

Politics

326

Ṁ1.7K

Ṁ1.3K

2041

26%

chance

ALL

The market will resolve as YES if all of the following conditions are met by close:

There exists an organized entity that acts as a sovereign state, though it has no physical territory or land borders except for any embassy premises.
This entity has a population of at least 5000 citizens who pay taxes to the entity and can participate in voting on laws or leadership.
The entity issues passports or other IDs that allow its citizens to travel internationally to at least 5 UN member states.
The entity provides dispute resolution services for conflicts between citizens or with the state.
The entity has at least observer status at the United Nations General Assembly, or is a full member.
A person can choose to be a citizen of this state exclusively, while renouncing any other citizenship.

Note: If the UN ceases to exist, I reserves the right to amend recognition criteria to an alternative that most closely approximates the original.

Edit 1: The state also must not claim to have any territory that is occupied by another state.

Edit 2: Owning some land or propery in another state doesn't count as having a territory if the host's state laws still apply in that land.

Edit 3: Every citizen should be able to obtain a passport or other ID that enables international travel access as specified in the criteria. If the entity only issues diplomatic passports, or a citizen must have a certain role, status, or profession to get a passport, then this requirement is not met.

Edit 4: Changed the recognition requirement from "recognition by at least 2 UN member" to "at least UN observer".

Edit 5: Fixed confusing wording in "travel internationally to at least 5 states recognized by UN member states" to just "... 5 UN member states".

Edit 6: Marine territory such as territorial waters or EEZ does count as physical territory of the state.

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I'm very confused by this question. It says "acts as a sovereign state", and the very most fundamental action of a sovereign state is exercising the monopoly of legitimized use of force. I presume there's a chance of this resolving YES even though such an entity wouldn't have the monopoly on the use of force anywhere in the world?

@BrunoParga Good point. But if there's no territory how could there be a monopoly? Monopoly where?

@roma my point exactly - I think this question is an oxymoron; it cannot possibly resolve YES.

@BrunoParga Nah, just ignore "acts as a sovereign state" if that causes issues, and focus on the specific requirements

@roma I'll pass :)

I realized I set the bar too low with "recognized by at least 2 UN members." I'm now thinking of requiring at least observer status in the UN instead. Please let me know if that looks like too big of a change at this point.

@rpominov Edited

I don't think it strictly fits your criteria, but if you allow for a bit of wiggle room I think the SMOM is very close https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_Military_Order_of_Malta

1: Yes
2: Sorta. It has ~13k "members", but only 3 "citizens". Also it seems to mostly funded by donations instead of taxes, and its not clear they have "laws" exactly, but that they do vote on leadership.
3: Yes: passports, licence plates, stamps, and coins
4. Yes? They have courts apparently
5. Yes. They have permanent member status
6. Not really? It seems just the top 3 within it are "citizens", and its unclear if one could renounce one's original nationality (I assume the current guys are dual citizens?)

@ChristopherChubb Wow, that's close! The main issue I have with it are passports. I didn't mention it specifically and will make an edit, but I want all citizens to be able to get a passport if they want to.

SMOM issues two kinds of passports (source):
1. Diplomatic (only 3 people have it)
2. Service (only 50 people have it, and one has to be a humanitarian personnel to get it). Also, not entirely sure the Service passport allows travel, but probably yes.

So, if all members could get a passport this could fit, although I would have to do more research on other details.

predicts YES

@rpominov yea I don't think it really fits the spirit of what you were asking about, but coincidentally is pretty close to the letter

@ChristopherChubb According to Wikipedia the three guys hold Canadian, French, and Italian passports, so likely dual citizens

@ChristopherChubb the SMOM is not even an observer, let alone a full member of the UN. The unrelated Republic of Malta is.

@BrunoParga they've been a permanent observer since 1994
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_permanent_representatives_to_the_United_Nations#Other_entities
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_permanent_observers_of_the_Sovereign_Military_Order_of_Malta_to_the_United_Nations

@ChristopherChubb you're right. Still not a member (and won't become one, they're kind of a historical anomaly along with the Holy See).

@BrunoParga yea... I know, never said otherwise, and the question only needs observer. The whole point of me bringing them up was to point out that they were an anomaly, something that almost meets the letter of the question despite not meeting the spirit

bought Ṁ0 of NO

If this happens, it's probably going to be Tuvalu.
https://campaignsoftheworld.com/digital/first-digital-nation-tuvalu/

Tuvalu: Becoming the World's First Digital Nation

Tuvalu, the First Digital Nation: Rising Sea Levels Propel the Pacific Island Nation Towards the Metaverse...Digital country, Teafualiku Islet

@AsptheWyvern Thank you for raising this!

Tuvalu is tricky. Even if it's islands disappear, it could still have territorial waters and/or EEZ. Not sure if that should count as "territory" here. I'm leaning yes, so no marine-only states. But let's discuss - I'm open to views on this!

@Roma Added an edit that explicitly mentions marine territory.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

I could see some conditions being met, but I'm not sure where the citizens would live physically, unless brain upload or permanently in orbit (betting NO on those by 2040). Have I missed a loophole?

@Tomoffer They may have double citizenship. Or be a nomad. Or live permanently in a country where they are not a citizen of, if the country allows it.