When will we know the Veritasium bean count?
14
1kṀ4245
Dec 31
August 30, 2025
12%
Before August 11th
21%
Before August 18th
36%
Before August 25th
47%
Before September 1st
52%
Before September 8th

For background: https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-jelly-beans-are-in-this-ja

Day thresholds are midnight UTC+0. Will resolve based on the publish date of the youtube video and/or social media post where the count is first officially announced.

I believe Veritasium has a newsletter and patreon - I don't subscribe to either, but if the news breaks there first it will count towards resolution, if there's reasonable evidence for it.

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@retr0id before august 4th resolves no

veritasium has forsaken the beans

before jul 21 should resolve @retr0id

@100Anonymous Oh, yeah, I should do that - but I can't find the button for it???

ah found it, they keep it well hidden lol

I wonder how the "expected" system interprets these buckets. Does it dynamically account for what today's date is, and then take the midpoint between today and the bucket's date? Or is it using a static date for each bucket?

@Quroe it would be nice to have all the math manifold does written up somewhere, wouldn't it?

@StepanBakhmarin To Manifold's credit, a lot of their stuff is out in the open for us. I think Crowlsyong told me one time it was all open source? I'm just not super adept at code reading, so I tend to leave that stuff to the techno-wizards.

@Quroe True. Still would be nice to have it as human-readable text

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