On Jan 5th Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 from Portland experienced rapid depressurization due to loss of a door plug. There were no deaths.
See e.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/business/alaska-airlines-flight-portland-landing.html
Will the 737-MAX fleet be grounded by the FAA or other US regulator as a result?
This must affect multiple airlines. A grounding only of Alaska planes would resolve No
It does not need to involve all 737 hulls. Eg a grounding of only those with plugs, or those manufactured in the last 6 months, would resolve yes.
A grounding implies flights must stop, potentially until after an inspection. Requiring inspections within a time window but allowing uninspected planes to still fly would resolve No
A grounding that requires inspection but allows immediate flights once that inspection is completed will resolve as “Yes, for 1-7 days”
For this market the grounding is over when planes start returning to flight. In general I would expect this to be based on the first time a 737 MAX 9 flies as part of general service again under rules that are expected to apply to substantially all grounded planes. So they don’t all need to be flying, but a single plane getting a special exemption would not count.
The market will resolve No on Jan 19 if there has been no grounding. (N/A as a grounding has now happened.) If there is a grounding it will resolve the sooner of when it ends, or 29 days after it begins.
I will not bet on this market.
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@TheoSpears From what I am seeing it seems right. If anything, just ping me and we can unresolve and fix!
I believe you can see a list of currently flying 737 MAX 9 planes here: https://www.flightaware.com/live/aircrafttype/B39M
@dreev I think the remaining this to confirm is at least one of these flights is a scheduled flight carrying members of the public, not just eg a transit flight moving the plane around.
@voodoo that is a transit flight 100% AS does not have hubs at either end. This is the earliest ungrounding https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/copa-airlines-737-max-9-becomes-first-grounded-jet-be-put-back-service-2024-01-25/
Alaska said it would resume 737 Max 9 flights on Friday “with more planes added every day as inspections are completed and each aircraft is deemed airworthy.”
United plans to return the planes to service beginning on Sunday, according to a message to employees from Chief Operating Officer Toby Enqvist.
From: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/24/boeing-737-max-faa-halts-production-expansion-oks-inspection-instructions.html
A claimed Boeing insider on the cause of the incident:
https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/safety/146074-boeing-internal-whistleblower-re-max-door.html
The Boeing 737-900ER mid-exit door plugs have an identical door plug design to the 737-9 MAX. As part of their Safety Management Systems, some operators have conducted additional inspections on the 737-900ER mid-exit door plugs and have noted findings with bolts during the maintenance
inspections.
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SAFO737900ER.pdf
United Airlines CEO says the airline will consider alternatives to Boeing’s next airplane
Alaska sent this to its members. Interesting tidbits are that the FAA is gathering info from airlines as they do inspections on all their fleet and that Alaska is going to be auditing Boeing’s production lines.
