Will Lula da Silva still be alive through the end of 2023?
Will Lula da Silva still be alive through the end of 2023?
21
400Ṁ39kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ77 | |
| 2 | Ṁ69 | |
| 3 | Ṁ42 | |
| 4 | Ṁ22 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Lula finish his term as President of Brazil?
88% chance
Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
35% chance
Will Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
65% chance
Will Angela Merkel be alive through the end of 2025?
95% chance
Will Geraldo Alckmin be the President of Brazil by Dec 31st 2025?
11% chance
Jair Bolsonaro dies before 2030?
42% chance
Will Lula be impeached?
7% chance
By the end of Lula's term in office, will he have a better supporting score in the House than Bolsonaro?
57% chance
Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
51% chance
Will Angela Merkel be alive through the end of 2035?
61% chance