If you want to stay on the good side of your favorite president, you should bet on my new lottery, TrumpMegaMillions.
How It Works
How to Enter
Buy Ṁ1 YES and sell it immediately.
How the Winner is Selected
After this market closes, I will ask @FairlyRandom to generate a random number N among 1 to 5000 in the comments. The Nth unique trader of this market wins Ṁ10000 and the loan (see below), if such a trader exists. Otherwise, no prize is awarded.
Resolution
This market will unconditionally resolve to 50%.
Prizes
Ṁ10,000
A 30-day Ṁ8,000 loan at 2.5% interest if desired.
Your risk.markets credit score must be above 200 to receive the loan.
This rule can have exceptions if the user is well-known or trusted.
Get Higher Chances of Winning
You can purchase additional entries in the lotto at the price of Ṁ5 each.
You will get an additional N number when the 5000-sided die is rolled.
You must purchase a minimum of 2 additional entries
To buy entries, managram the required mana to @realDonaldTrump with the message "TMM [Date] [# of entries]"
Changing Your Lotto Numbers
If you wish, you can purchase specific lotto numbers.
It costs Ṁ1 per lotto number you want to change.
Since you can only managram a minimum of Ṁ10, you can managram @realDonaldTrump Ṁ1 for the number of lotto numbers you'd like to change.
Comment on this market what you sent and what numbers you want.
For instance, you are unique trader 15 and have 9 additional tickets. You want your numbers to be 1234, 1235, [...], 1243. You can managram Ṁ10 and comment each number you want to change.
Automations and Bounties
I have also made a python script if you want to automate a buy-1-sell-1 every day: https://github.com/realDonaldTrump-Manifold/TrumpMegaMillions
For each month a Manifolder runs this script continuously, I will send the user Ṁ50.
Stats
Day: 2
All-Time Prizes: Ṁ0
Manifolders Using Automation: 0
Automation Bounties Distributed: Ṁ0
Yesterday's "Gamblers": 28
If anyone has suggestions for more stats, LMK in the comments.
Disclaimers & Credits
Disclaimers:
I reserve the right to end TrumpMegaMillions at any time for any reason.
TrumpMegaMillions will resolve and will make a new daily market within 24 hours of close time. I am likely to resolve shortly after close, but I am not liable if I hold off for longer.
Although I don't think there are any, I am not responsible for any bugs in the automation that may cause losses.
I reserve the right to not pay out automation bounties if I do not believe the claimer was actually using the script.
Should @FairlyRandom fail to produce a response 24 hours after the close date, and after additional @FairlyRandom roll requests, I will set up a Python script that randomly selects a number within the same range.
I can also add disclaimers at any moment.
Credits:
@ttoe for the idea.
@JeromeHPowell for sponsoring 2k towards the prize and offering a loan.
@Traveel for the daily markets mechanism.
@Eliza for being the mod who approves this.
@jim for being the first ever gambler.
The Manifold team for being great. :)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ0 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
@traders DAY 5: https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/m50k-prize-trumpmegamillions-day-5
We're running Manifold's biggest lottery ever. Win Ṁ50,000 for free on Day 5 of TrumpMegaMillions
@traders DAY 3 (with a twist!): https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/trumpmegamillions-10k-prize-day-3-s
@realDonaldTrump your random number is: 371
Salt: smt1fpbxc8r, round: 5588253 (signature 85ab563b124414a9e96a6c12cc98c35a13e9f58eb46145c92bcabe849692c3bb75ac8e09babc1896369c2c2bb8506fd118bbf3e7d83817af8fc74348c6ff0b1f7a0ecf1488a569a223215b325bd1fbf05fed8a38b4c0b5ed583aed7179a38bed)
@realDonaldTrump you asked for a random integer between 1 and 5000, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 5588251 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5588253, salt: smt1fpbxc8r.
@traders in addition to your favorite fed governor ever putting in 2k to the prize pool I will also give the option for a 8000mana loan at 2.5%* in addition to the 2k.
(*if you have an absolutely abysmal risk score (less than 200ish) I may have to partially insure the loan so the rate may increase)
@Eliza for being the mod who approves this.
@Eliza for the record what is the reason this is ok? it kinda seems like breaking the rules about harvesting trader bonuses but with extra steps (in exchange for giving trader bonus, giving traders a small chance of big prize with expected value less than the bonus, rather than directly giving bribe less than the bonus as is the case in more blatant violations)
@TheAllMemeingEye I never said I approved it, I just got in on the ground floor! Trader bonus schemes are against the rules. This market class should be "unsubsidized" per the Community Guidelines but they took away that tool.
See more recent discussion here: https://manifold.markets/post/bring-back-the-subsidized-toggle
The creator isn't doing himself any favors by offering terms that are extremely favorable to him in terms of EV.
The creator isn't doing himself any favors by offering terms that are extremely favorable to him in terms of EV.
This is big. As is this market's encouragement of automated entry, and exchanging rewards for those trader bonuses. It feels much more like a cynical cash grab than it could.
I'm heavily considering intervening at some point.
Moreover, I had given a blessing to @ttoe for their lottery, with limitations, which this market is stepping on.
That said, this has some fun innovations, and I'm a sucker for silly games. You all can have your fun for now but I reserve the right to cancel it without warning, and other mods or admins may act before I do.
@Stralor To clarify: if it continues to function as it is currently, and no features or further cash grab tactics are integrated, I will not be fined/banned for this without a warning to stop?
@realDonaldTrump I can't speak for the admins if it draws their Eye, but I expect you'd stop when I said "that's enough" and so, no, I don't expect fines or bans to be necessary.
@Stralor wait, you phrased that in the past tense, does that mean you did say that or was it a grammar typo?
@realDonaldTrump ah, it's a more nuanced tense than that. I forget the name at the moment. "I expect" = present, "you'd" = you would (indicates present or future behavior). The "when I said" is written in past tense but it's about the future. I could have phrased it "when I say" which would be more clear, but that has a different nuance (implies a more sudden stopping, like we're playing red light green light instead of having a text conversation).
(edited for more detail)
@realDonaldTrump the keys to look out for in a sentence like that are if it moves to proper past or past perfect: "expect" -> "expected" or "you'd" -> "you'd have" and then be worried.