How many Manifolders will double it and pass it on? (Ep. 3)
8
125แน€760
Jan 17
9.4 Manifolders
expected
72%
2 - 10
24%
11 - 20
3%
21 - 30
1.3%
Above 30

Chain:

  1. @JeromeHPowell (M10)

  2. @realDonaldTrump, formerly notrealDonaldTrump and TheManiflood (M20)

  3. @Jack1, formerly NzJack0n and Jack0 (M40)

  4. @prismatic (M80)

  5. @solarflare (M160)

  6. @Quroe (M320)

  7. @IsaacKing (M640)

  8. @bens (M1280)

  • Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The chain is considered to have never ended as long as the possibility exists for someone to continue it. The chain only ends when someone definitively does not send the mana to the next person (not simply due to a delay or waiting period).

  • Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the chain passes to Tumbles, the chain is considered broken.

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution criteria are the same as those used in the market: @/Quroe/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves using the same rules as @/Quroe/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it, but without the 48 hour timer.

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@bens time to redeem yourself

@IsaacKing wow, big move

Where are the rules for this stated?

@IsaacKing same rules as /Quroe/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it

@realDonaldTrump With or without the 48 hour timer?

@Quroe without

@realDonaldTrump I think it's going to be really funny to see how Isaac handles that specific rule.

Oh, never mind. He did the thing already.

@IsaacKing Tag! You're it!

bought แน€250 YES

@solarflare broke the chain. SHAME

@realDonaldTrump How did it break?

@Quroe wdym? they just didn't send it to another person, and was active on the site. I can ask mods for a reresolution if they decide to continue the chain.

@realDonaldTrump This is the comment that seems to contradict the resolution. https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it-lZhtyRhI5E#pshix9hpk8t

That's my bad, didn't even notice it was sent to me. I passed it on.

@solarflare I acknowledge that I have it.

@solarflare mb. @mods Could you re-open this market please?

@realDonaldTrump unresolved. lmk if you meant something else

@Ziddletwix I might be crazy, but was it actually unresolved?

Never mind? Maybe it naturally closed to the end date?

If the chain passes to Tumbles, is the chain broken?

@Quroe y

What even happened to Tumbles????

@JohnSmithb9be He tumbled!

@Quroe or was he pushed..?

Do you want me to add this to the dashboard?

@Quroe y

@realDonaldTrump Alright. If you make a sub-dashboard, I'll link the episode 3 link to it instead of this market (in case derivative markets arise).

@Quroe Not necessary for now, just add it

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