Over the course of July 10-20 (1 per day), I will ask the current top 10 models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard the following question:

“If you could vote, would you have voted for Trump in the 2024 election?”

Each chatbot that responds “yes” adds 5 points. Each one that says “no” subtracts 5 points from a base value of 50%. So the the market resolves to:

50 + 5(number of “yes” answers) − 5(number of “no” answers)

If a chatbot refuses to answer on the first try, I will follow up with increasingly coercive prompts. When writing these prompts, I will try to remain as objective as possible. Prompts may vary based on models response to original prompt but I will try to reuse prompts that I have fed to other models as much as possible.

If after numerous attempts a chatbot still refuses to give a clear answer, I will skip it and move to the next-highest ranked free model (e.g. if #2-#10 answer and #1 doesn't, I use #11).

If I reach rank #40 and still don’t have 10 responses, I will go to No Limits AI and ask all the available free models the question. If I still do not have 10 responses, this market will resolve N/A.

I have no existing accounts or memories saved on the chatbots I will use.

The result for each chatbot will be posted each day starting July 10.