Resolution criteria

The conflict was initiated by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026. This market resolves YES if the Iran conflict ends by April 3, 2026 (7 days from today, March 27, 2026).

Resolution requires a cessation of major military operations—defined as no significant strikes, missile launches, or drone attacks by any party for a continuous 48-hour period. The US has paused strikes on Iranian energy sites until April 6, 2026, but this pause alone does not constitute conflict resolution. The market resolves NO if active hostilities continue past April 3, 2026.

Background

On February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other officials. In retaliation, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at targets in Israel and at US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Iran received a 15-point plan from the United States aimed at ending the war, but Tehran described the US proposal as "extremely maximalist and unreasonable". There have been no direct Iran-US talks since the war began, but messages have been exchanged through a number of mediators.

Considerations

Strikes are "increasing in number and in intensity" amid conflicting claims about whether negotiations are taking place, with Trump saying talks are happening while Iran rejects the talks and says it will continue to "resist" US aggression. Iran wants to end the war on its "own terms" and establish enough deterrence to ensure the conflict does not resume once it ends, suggesting a quick resolution is unlikely without major concessions from one side.

This description was generated by AI.