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MANIFOLD
Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
2
Ṁ200Ṁ214
Oct 1
85%
Below 4.6 million km²
67%
Below 4.5 million km²
49%
Below 4.4 million km²
31%
Below 4.3 million km²
17%
Below 4.2 million km²
10%
Below 4.0 million km²
6%
Below 3.8 million km²

Each answer resolves independently. An answer resolves YES if the National Snow and Ice Data Center records at least one qualifying daily Arctic sea-ice extent strictly below that answer's threshold. Otherwise it resolves NO.

The measurement is the lowest individual daily Extent value in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for dates from December 19, 2025 through October 1, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers. A value exactly equal to a threshold does not count as below it.

Use the data available at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026; later revisions are ignored. Primary source: NSIDC daily CSV.

Replicates the retained thresholds from this Kalshi event, excluding its 4.8M and 3.6M km² extremes. Trading closes at noon ET on October 1, twelve hours before the observation window ends.

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