Resolution Criteria: US-China Trade Deal Before June?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and the People’s Republic of China jointly announce a finalized agreement related to trade and/or tariffs between April 8, 2025, and May 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM Pacific Time (PT).

To qualify:

• The agreement must be mutually confirmed by both governments through official press releases, public statements, or signed documentation.

• The agreement must include substantive trade or tariff-related terms, such as adjustments, reductions, or new trade commitments.

• Agreements involving additional countries will qualify only if the US and China are explicit signatories and the trade-related terms between them are clearly stated.

Resolution Sources:

• Official communications from the White House, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), or Department of Commerce, and from China’s Ministry of Commerce or Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

• In the absence of a joint statement, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming a finalized, mutual agreement will also suffice.

The market will not resolve to “Yes” if:

• There are only unilateral, informal, or non-binding announcements.

• Negotiations are ongoing or announced but not finalized.

• The joint announcement occurs after May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT, even if negotiations conclude earlier.

If no qualifying agreement is announced within the time window, this market will resolve to “No”.

• Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirms their interpretation: An interim agreement (e.g., a temporary tariff pause) does not count as a "finalized agreement" if broader trade negotiations are still ongoing. Such a situation falls under the existing exclusion that the market will not resolve to "Yes" if "Negotiations are ongoing or announced but not finalized".

• Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding Resolution Sources: Official communications from the listed US and Chinese government entities must be published on their respective official government websites.

• Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding a joint statement as the 'Official communication' for resolution:

  • The text of the joint statement itself must be published on the official government websites of both a listed U.S. entity (White House, USTR, or Department of Commerce) and a listed Chinese entity (Ministry of Commerce or Ministry of Foreign Affairs).

  • A mere reference to a joint statement by one government, or a unilateral confirmation of a statement primarily published by the other, is insufficient. The joint statement text itself must be published by the specified entities on both sides.

• Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A temporary agreement, such as a tariff pause, can qualify as the 'finalized agreement' required for a 'Yes' resolution. This is contingent on the agreement meeting all joint publication requirements previously outlined (i.e., the text of the joint statement itself must be published on the official government websites of both a listed U.S. entity and a listed Chinese entity). Such a published temporary agreement can lead to a 'Yes' resolution even if broader trade negotiations are still considered ongoing.

• Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator emphasizes that an agreement must be finalized and published to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

  • Finalized: A temporary agreement (e.g., a tariff pause) made while broader trade negotiations are still ongoing is not considered "finalized". This aligns with the existing market rule that the market will not resolve to "Yes" if "Negotiations are ongoing or announced but not finalized."

  • Published: The agreement must be published according to previously stated requirements: the text of the joint statement itself must appear on the official government websites of both a listed U.S. entity and a listed Chinese entity.

• Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced that this market will be resolved as N/A. See the linked comment for the announcement.