Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with before August? [Polymarket]
4
325Ṁ132
Aug 1
76%
India
66%
Japan
66%
Israel
50%
Canada
50%
Mexico
50%
South Korea
50%
Argentina
50%
European Union
41%
Brazil
34%
Australia
34%
Germany
34%
France
24%
China

Resolves the same as the Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august

Each option will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between July 1, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the option will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, the option will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Country-specific tariff reductions and tariff exemption extensions which are officially announced by the Trump administration will qualify if they reflect a bilateral agreement. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

Trade agreements on minerals, critical supply chains, or other trade cooperation areas, will not alone qualify.

Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.

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