Resolution Criteria: “US military action against Iran before August?”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military initiates a military action against Iran between June 17, 2025 and July 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM PT, inclusive. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

What counts as “Yes”:

Military action is defined as any use of force by the U.S. military on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or against Iranian diplomatic facilities (e.g., embassies or consulates). This includes, but is not limited to:

• Airstrikes

• Naval attacks

• Ground operations

To qualify, the action must be publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or verified by a consensus of credible media reporting.

If qualifying action occurs before July 31, the market may resolve early upon confirmation.

What does not count (“No”):

• Cyberattacks

• Sanctions, blockades, or other economic measures

• Covert operations not publicly acknowledged

• Diplomatic actions or threats

• An Israeli airstrike in Iran using U.S.-supplied weapons, but with no U.S. operational involvement