Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between June 1, 2025, and June 30, 2025, inclusive, the United States conducts one or more airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone strikes targeting locations within Iran. The market will resolve to "No" if no such military actions occur within this timeframe. Official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, credible news organizations, or other authoritative sources will serve as the basis for resolution.

Background

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched significant airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordow, targeting key military officials and nuclear scientists. This operation aimed to impede Iran's advancing nuclear capabilities. In response, Iran initiated missile strikes against Israeli cities such as Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. (time.com)

Following these events, Israel has urged the United States to join military operations against Iran to eliminate its nuclear program, citing the need for U.S. capabilities to effectively target heavily fortified sites like the Fordow facility. (axios.com)

As of June 16, 2025, the United States has not publicly confirmed any direct military action against Iran.

Considerations

• Official Announcements: Monitor statements from the U.S. government, particularly the Department of Defense, for any announcements regarding military actions targeting Iran.

• Media Reports: Stay informed through reputable news outlets for reports on potential U.S. military activities in the region.

• Regional Developments: Given the escalating tensions following Israel's recent strikes and Iran's retaliatory actions, the situation remains fluid. Traders should consider the potential for rapid developments that could influence the market's resolution.