This market will resolve to YES if Ali Khamenei is removed from power as Supreme Leader of Iran for any length of time on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Ali Khamenei will be considered removed from power if, within the market’s timeframe, any of the following occur:

• He resigns as Supreme Leader

• He is detained

• He loses the position of Supreme Leader through formal or de facto means

• He is prevented from fulfilling the duties of Supreme Leader, including due to incapacitation or external constraint

Temporary delegation of duties, rumors, speculation, or unverified claims do not qualify unless they result in a clear loss of authority consistent with the above conditions.

Removal from power for any duration, even if later reversed, is sufficient for a YES resolution.

Resolution Source

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including major international news organizations and/or official Iranian government statements.