This market will resolve to YES if Ali Khamenei is removed from power as Supreme Leader of Iran for any length of time on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Ali Khamenei will be considered removed from power if, within the market’s timeframe, any of the following occur:
He resigns as Supreme Leader
He is detained
He loses the position of Supreme Leader through formal or de facto means
He is prevented from fulfilling the duties of Supreme Leader, including due to incapacitation or external constraint
Temporary delegation of duties, rumors, speculation, or unverified claims do not qualify unless they result in a clear loss of authority consistent with the above conditions.
Removal from power for any duration, even if later reversed, is sufficient for a YES resolution.
Resolution Source
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including major international news organizations and/or official Iranian government statements.
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for confirmation from the Iranian government before resolving this market.
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@predyx_markets copy pasted, then realized it's a generic link to their reporting with no obvious way to link to a specific headline - was aiming to link to "Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Is Dead:" https://apnews.com/article/iran-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-dead-5b13b69b708c4ed38e8f95f5fb41a597
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I think yes. But, even though Polymarket is not 100% reliable, if Trump, Israel and Polymarket all claimed that Khamenei is dead, then I think he is probably actually dead.
@MarcoMar right. And that probability is something to trade on. I agree the lack of clarity suggests he is indeed dead.
Guys - I'm still waiting to get official confirmation from Iranian govt. Whether Khamenei is dead or not, if he's not the supreme leader of Iran - this market will resolve to YES. Also please note - this market was not about Khamenei's death.
@TheAllMemeingEye ok finally some definitive statement, though he's not exactly a reliable narrator lol
