This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces the release of a model explicitly named GPT-5 before 11:59 PM PT on August 9, 2025.
A release is defined as any of the following occurring on or before August 9, 2025:
A public launch announcement or general availability announcement of a model named GPT-5 by OpenAI.
The model becomes accessible to the public via API, ChatGPT, or any other official OpenAI product or platform.
This market will resolve to “No” if:
The model is released after August 9, 2025, even if it is still within August.
A model is released under a different name (e.g., GPT-4.5, GPT-Next, etc.) and is not clearly and officially identified by OpenAI as GPT-5.
There is only a preview, demo, leak, research paper, or private/internal access without an official public release.
Primary resolution sources include:
OpenAI’s official blog, press releases, and verified social media accounts.
If necessary, a consensus of credible reporting from major technology or news media will be used for confirmation.
If no qualifying release occurs by August 14, 2025 at 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve to “No”.
🏅 Top traders
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5 | Ṁ516 |
Why is the probability so high? Are there other news I'm missing? Seems like there's a decent chance it'll be at least a bit delayed: https://dataconomy.com/2025/08/05/gpt-5-delayed-as-openai-braces-for-capacity-issues/