GPT-5 released before August 10, 2025?
213
2kṀ120k
resolved Aug 7
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces the release of a model explicitly named GPT-5 before 11:59 PM PT on August 9, 2025.

A release is defined as any of the following occurring on or before August 9, 2025:

  • A public launch announcement or general availability announcement of a model named GPT-5 by OpenAI.

  • The model becomes accessible to the public via API, ChatGPT, or any other official OpenAI product or platform.

This market will resolve to “No” if:

  • The model is released after August 9, 2025, even if it is still within August.

  • A model is released under a different name (e.g., GPT-4.5, GPT-Next, etc.) and is not clearly and officially identified by OpenAI as GPT-5.

  • There is only a preview, demo, leak, research paper, or private/internal access without an official public release.

Primary resolution sources include:

  • OpenAI’s official blog, press releases, and verified social media accounts.

  • If necessary, a consensus of credible reporting from major technology or news media will be used for confirmation.

If no qualifying release occurs by August 14, 2025 at 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve to “No”.

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bought Ṁ20 NO

This market is so primed for insider info to farm

bought Ṁ50 NO

Why is the probability so high? Are there other news I'm missing? Seems like there's a decent chance it'll be at least a bit delayed: https://dataconomy.com/2025/08/05/gpt-5-delayed-as-openai-braces-for-capacity-issues/

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