AI generates full movie before 2027?

Question

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on or before December 31, 2026, a publicly documented demonstration confirms that an AI system is capable of generating a 90-minute high-quality movie from a single natural language prompt.

✅ To qualify as “Yes”:

The AI must generate a coherent and watchable 90-minute film in response to a simple prompt such as:

“Create a 90-minute Star Trek and Star Wars crossover where Captain Kirk and Han Solo join forces to stop a galactic threat. Include space battles, humor, and advanced technology from both universes.”

The film must be comparable to a big-budget studio production in:

Visual and audio fidelity (e.g., CGI, animation, or AI-generated live-action)

Narrative structure, pacing, and dialogue

Character coherence and soundtrack quality

The AI system does not need to be publicly accessible, but:

The movie’s generation must be confirmed and documented by a credible source, such as:

A major media outlet

A well-known AI lab (e.g., OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta, etc.)

An academic institution or verifiable independent demonstration

The full film or substantial excerpts must be available for public or expert viewing, or described in sufficient detail to verify authenticity.

❌ Resolves “No” if:

No such demonstration is made by December 31, 2026, at 23:59 PT.

Only short clips, trailers, or partial films are generated.

The process requires significant human input or manual editing beyond the initial prompt.

The prompt must be broken into many steps or require fine-tuned scripting.

In case of ambiguity, Predyx will make a final determination based on publicly available evidence and editorial judgment, prioritizing transparency and community expectations.

📅 Resolution Date: December 31, 2026, at 23:59 PT

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 15% chance (18 traders, as of Jan 2, 2026).