GPT-5 released before August 15, 2025?

Question

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces the release of a model explicitly named GPT-5before 11:59 PM PT on August 14, 2025.

A release is defined as any of the following occurring on or before August 14, 2025:

A public launch announcement or general availability announcement of a model named GPT-5 by OpenAI.

The model becomes accessible to the public via API, ChatGPT, or any other official OpenAI product or platform.

This market will resolve to “No” if:

The model is released after August 14, 2025, even if it is still within August.

A model is released under a different name (e.g., GPT-4.5, GPT-Next, etc.) and is not clearly and officially identified by OpenAI as GPT-5.

There is only a preview, demo, leak, research paper, or private/internal access without an official public release.

Primary resolution sources include:

OpenAI’s official blog, press releases, and verified social media accounts.

If necessary, a consensus of credible reporting from major technology or news media will be used for confirmation.

If no qualifying release occurs by August 14, 2025 at 11:59 PM PT, this market will resolve to “No”.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Aug 7, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.