Welcome, youngest Chain Link Initiate!
Before you may join the sacred space that we Chain Links share with our Hero, you must prove your loyalty to our Hero and the Great Chain by performing the Doubling.
Until that time, you will not be granted audience with our Hero, but the other Chain Links will help you select another Chain Link whom we trust to involve in your Doubling.
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If you haven't heard back from conflux, I think you should do Wott (Paraconsistent Prior): https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it-d9q609ZP6R#62vvrdqrrod
@calour is the newest Initiate. Please welcome them into our circle.
Calour has created a futarchy market to decide who to involve in their Doubling. Please do not ping anyone that isn't a Chain Link.
@MaxE thank you for inviting me!
I think there is a significant chance that no one makes themselves eligible for the futarchy market, so I still need to decide who I send it to otherwise.
I think there are lots of people who people think are trustworthy, but are actually of the the "honors their contracts/promises" type of trustworthy, not the "plays along & would burn 8192 mana" type of trustworthy. And they haven't promised anything, so they'll just go "oh, thanks for the 8192 mana, ill keep it" despite being considered "trustworthy."
Also, should I just send it to 121? That will prevent the villain from winning, but it will also prevent the hero from winning.
I think a good option is just on of the top on the futarchy market anyways. (so Conflux or snazzlePop)
Welcome initiate @calour! I see you have a good mind for strategy.
You need to know that we in the Great Chain strive solely for the victory of our Hero, whom you shall get to commune with in our sacred space after you perform the Doubling. Unless of course, you were to involve the Villain in your Doubling, making yourself an enemy of the Great Chain.
I'm confident that that suggestion was made merely from ignorance, and we will not hold it against you.
@calour We strive to defeat the villain on step 12, as was foretold. To involve them earlier would bring disaster upon the Chain!
ok we need to find someone new. any recommendations for someone who is likely to pass it on to snazzlePop if we tell them to? since snazzlePop has massive inventive to pass it on then.
@calour Considering snazzle's trades across both the main market and your futarchy, snazzle is very incentivised to both send it on and make sure it gets to someone trustworthy. So could be fine to send it to him on this pass?
@Jasonb they will gain +28k if they keep it vs sending it on to someone who doesn't pass it on
@calour Does your futarchy market N/A if the conditions fail? If so, what funds are freed when it N/As?
@calour Don't they lose 15.8k from your futarchy? Or am I missing some other mana somewhere
if snazzlePop keeps it, their option resolves to NO and everyone else N/A.
they would lose 16k shares, but win 28k vs the world where they pass it on and that person keeps it, where they win 16k and lose 28k.
for them, the order of preference is "pass it on to someone who passes it on" > "keep it" > "pass it on to someone who ends the chain". according to my math, which is known to fallible, they need to be 96% confident in the person they would send it to to make it rational to pass it on
@calour Oh right yes this makes sense. Conflux is also trading highly in your futarchy, can they be trusted? Or maybe prompted to commit?
@calour Also I found a market I could sell in to provide another 500 mana at 99% if that helps you get up to 8192?
Chain Links, please welcome our newest Initiate @Nat!
Nat, do you have any names in mind for who you might to include in your Doubling? (please do not tag anyone who is not a Chain Link)
@SimonWestlake Thank you for the kind welcomes, it is a great honour to be among such prestigious mana-doubling-forces
I had been considering doing a traditional futarchy but due to unforseen busyness have left such things a touch too late
Currently thinking of adding Robin given a) second highest futarchy candidate, and b) need to add our HERO eventually; though open to suggestions or feedback
@Nat With less than 24 hours left on the clock, have you spoken with anybody who consents to receiving it? (Mechanically, you technically don't need their consent to send mana, but shame keeps score.)
What say ye, fellow Chain Links? Do we grant @Robincvgr her destiny now? Or do we bide our time?
Greetings, fellow Chain Links. I am honored to have been summoned for the Doubling and humbly accept refuge in this here commune. I extend my gratitude to our great Hero for embarking on this difficult task.
@MylieSiegel Also, welcome to Manifold, where silly people go to act smart, and smart people go to act silly.
@MylieSiegel Manifold is a very serious place full of very serious people predicting very serious things...
https://manifold.markets/fedor/how-many-times-will-i-shit-in-octob-28LtEczRSy
ahem
Greetings fellow Chain Link!
@MaxE I have informed the other Chain Links about our deal to include JasonB (make sure not to tag users who should not be aware of this post) in your Doubling .
As it stands, he will be selecting 3 users to include as options in his Futarchy market that will choose the Chain Link after him. I'm planning on reaching out to him before you send him the mana to suggest some options. Do you have any ideas for who we should include?
@SimonWestlake I think it would be fitting if I invited JasonB to the initiation once I pass the mana