Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "Captain America: Brave New World" (2025).
This market will close for trading on Friday, February 14, 2025, at 11AM PT. It will resolve when the actuals are posted.
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo. Note that this is typically the 3-day weekend (FSS) plus any previews but does NOT include the Monday holiday.
For example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" (2014) was $95,023,721. This is the equivalent number I will use.
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@traders estimates have it at $88.5 million for the weekend. i'll wait for actuals to resolve the last two options, but i've already resolved the three highest options NO.
@polymathematic i haven't been tracking much box office at all, but even assuming midpoint near ~95-100ish (no clue if i'd trust that or not), 85% for >85M is way too high, 10d tracking just isn't that accurate
@Ziddletwix so just cleaning up outdated markets but giving it another minute of thought i'd take NO at 80%