Will the elected President be the first candidate to reach 60%?
➕
Plus
20
Ṁ19k
Jan 7
99.5%
chance

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing “reaching of 60% first,” resolution of this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Rules:

Through analyzing the graph, if at a static point, before eod November 5th, I determine a candidate’s odds has reached at least 60.0%, then the market will resolve YES after that candidate is officially elected and NO after that candidate not elected.

Since trump already reached 60% this will resolve YES if, between market creation and eod November 5th 2024, nobody else reaches 60% again, and Trump goes on to be certified president this election.

To further ensure to you bias has no roll in determining the “official 60% being reached” I will not trade in this market.

Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a 60% being reached at that moment.

Comment any questions or news you have! 💙

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another way to read this market since trump already hit 60 (but not first since market creation) is:

After market creation: Kamala Harris reaches 60% before Trump and Kamala wins the election, or nobody else (other than trump before market creation) reaches 60% and Trump wins the election. (each resolve YES)

After market creation: Kamala Harris reaches 60% before trump and Kamala loses the election, or nobody else (other than trump before market creation) reaches 60% again and Trump loses the election. (each resolve NO)

now just trump (YES) or harris (NO)

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