NOTE:
in order to prevent a confusing “reaching of 60% first,” resolution of this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).
Rules:
Through analyzing the graph, if at a static point, before eod November 5th, I determine a candidate’s odds has reached at least 60.0%, then the market will resolve YES after that candidate is officially elected and NO after that candidate not elected.
Since trump already reached 60% this will resolve YES if, between market creation and eod November 5th 2024, nobody else reaches 60% again, and Trump goes on to be certified president this election.
To further ensure to you bias has no roll in determining the “official 60% being reached” I will not trade in this market.
Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a 60% being reached at that moment.
Comment any questions or news you have! 💙
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3.00@pluffASMR When you do plan to resolve this to Yes? Specifically, are you going to wait until the Electoral College meets on December 17, 2024?
another way to read this market since trump already hit 60 (but not first since market creation) is:
After market creation: Kamala Harris reaches 60% before Trump and Kamala wins the election, or nobody else (other than trump before market creation) reaches 60% and Trump wins the election. (each resolve YES)
After market creation: Kamala Harris reaches 60% before trump and Kamala loses the election, or nobody else (other than trump before market creation) reaches 60% again and Trump loses the election. (each resolve NO)