Basic
427
117k
Jan 7
Walz accepts CBS debate invitation.
85%
Walz says "Weird"
44%
Anyone says "Couch"
65%
Debate has live audience
69%
Anyone refers to Trump as a "Convicted felon"
56%
Anyone says "Childless cat ladies"
74%
Vance says "Weird"
73%
Vance says "socialism" or "socialist"
66%
Anyone refers to the events of January 6th 2021 at the Capitol as an "insurrection" or "attempted insurrection"
88%
Walz and Vance shake hands
37%
Anyone says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"
71%
Walz wins the debate (Subjective: see description)
46%
Anyone says "Racist" or "Racism"
21%
Anyone says "Turned black"
65%
Walz mentions any part of Trump's history of sexual abuse.
41%
Walz calls Vance "Weird" to his face lol
63%
This will be more entertaining than the first Presidential Debate (Subjective: see description)
32%
Anyone says "Sexist" or "Sexism"
45%
Anyone says "Hillbilly Elegy"
18%
Anyone says "Bitcoin"
12%
Anyone says "Misogynist" or "Misogyny"

Every option will NOT N/A from there not being a VP debate. Instead, no VP debate before election day would make all options describing something to happen resolve NO and the options describing things to not happen during the debate resolve YES.

Feel free to add answers, just know I may change it to keep the format and rules all consistent or make more sense. DO NOT add options that resolve after the debate ends such as: polls a week after debate, odds of presidential race after debate, etc. However, you can make options about anything that resolves before, during, and at the moment the debate ends.

Each answer will independently resolve to YES only if exactly what is described in the answer happens during the first official Vice Presidential Debate of 2024. Otherwise, the answer will resolve NO.

For all words/phrases: the person or people described in the answer must say the exact words or phrases between the quotes of that respective answer. They must say the total word(s) or phrase(s) with the same exact order and spelling (verb tense and pluralization) of the answer to resolve it to YES. Otherwise, that answer describing someone to say something will resolve NO.

For all subjective options: only I can add subjectively resolved options. I will not bet on these, and base my determinations off official debate polls combined with honest opinions and feelings I hold after the debate. as of now i think walz is gonna cook vance and ill update how i feel in the comments as we get closer to debate.

"Anyone" includes moderators but not the audience (unless specified)

To make the determinations above I will use a transcript of the aired debate in tandem with watching a couple times. Ill resolve within two days of the debate happening.

THIS WILL STAY LIVE THROUGH THE DEBATE AIRING. As the debate happens I will comment potential resolutions I believe to be true and ask if there are any objections. Then I will resolve based on the common truth presented in the transcript, video, and comments.

inspired by jacksonpolack

ask any questions or news you have below!

latest: Tim Walz Says He ‘Can’t Wait’ to Debate JD Vance: ‘That’s if He’s Willing to Get Off the Couch’

VP debate hosted by CBS News set for Oct. 1 between Vance and Walz

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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bought Ṁ3 Vance says "socialis... NO

Please upgrade this market

@Epistemic_Hygiene This isn't how options are usually phrased. You could edit it to something like ""Haiti" or "Haitians" is said by any candidate."

@JacksonSipple Including “earth”?

@JacksonSipple Does it have to be in the solar system? Can it be fictional? Can it be part of a word, like if they say "birth"? If the answer to the first question is "no" and the answer to the third question is "yes", it's almost certain to resolve YES because of Su.

bought Ṁ26 Anyone says "Childle... YES

I have met Doug before and this is exactly the kind of iconic behavior I've come to expect from him.

@Marnix Just made this easier to resolve 🫡

@ZacParker This would be so peak

similar (but costs less to add more options):

nothin from Vance yet.

@ZacParker I’m dying 😭

@ZacParker This is just any sense right?

Yes whether Tim Walz says "based on a study" or whether JD Vance repeatedly shouts "Based!" when Walz correctly accuses him of trying to destroy women's rights.

Can I ask what the purpose is of this Not N/A'ing if there is no debate?

I don’t think it should NA because the resolutions would still technically be true even with no debate. IMO, everyone getting paid out and not just refunded is better for the integrity of markets like these and it makes them more fun.

It adds the underlying question, is the debate actually happening, to every single option. Almost turning each into a parlay that includes the odds of the debate happening or not.

I think that underlying question makes it less fun, imo. Wish it wouldn't have that, otherwise I'd have more fun placing little bets here. But I understand it's not my question. Thanks for answering.

Broke: J.D. Vance calls the United States under Trump "the greatest country on Earth"

Woke: Tim Walz claims J.D. Vance's comfortable life at Yale "really mars the credibility of Hillbilly Elegy"

Bespoke: Moderator asks J.D. Vance to weigh in on "the M&M's Minis container you shoved up your anus"

bought Ṁ8 Answer #2tje80maud YES
Walz calls Vance "Weird" to his face lol

arb:

made one with more liquidity:

bought Ṁ3 Vance says "socialis... NO

Please upgrade this market

would love this.

@NathanpmYoung thank you so much. i appreciate this a lot ❤

@pluffASMR it's probably optimal. i don't think u want a full upgrade because then the cost for adding answers goes up