Basic
682
237k
Jan 7
Walz accepts CBS debate invitation.
TRUMP v. HARRIS
76%
Walz says "Weird"
34%
Anyone says "Couch"
12%
Debate has live audience
70%
Anyone refers to Trump as a "Convicted felon"
51%
Anyone says "Childless cat ladies"
62%
Vance says "Weird"
79%
Vance says "socialism" or "socialist"
66%
Anyone refers to the events of January 6th 2021 at the Capitol as an "insurrection" or "attempted insurrection"
91%
Walz and Vance shake hands
38%
Anyone says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence"
86%
Walz wins the debate (Subjective: see description)
57%
Anyone says "Racist" or "Racism"
13%
Anyone says "Turned black"
35%
Walz mentions any part of Trump's history of sexual abuse.
25%
Walz calls Vance "Weird" to his face lol
36%
This will be more entertaining than the first Presidential Debate (Subjective: see description)
26%
Anyone says "Sexist" or "Sexism"
40%
Anyone says "Hillbilly Elegy"
7%
Anyone says "Bitcoin"
10%
Anyone says "Misogynist" or "Misogyny"

Every option will NOT N/A from there not being a VP debate. Instead, no VP debate before election day would make all options describing something to happen resolve NO and the options describing things to not happen during the debate resolve YES.

Feel free to add answers, just know I may change it to keep the format and rules all consistent or make more sense. DO NOT add options that resolve after the debate ends such as: polls a week after debate, odds of presidential race after debate, etc. However, you can make options about anything that resolves before, during, and at the moment the debate ends.

Each answer will independently resolve to YES only if exactly what is described in the answer happens during the first official Vice Presidential Debate of 2024. Otherwise, the answer will resolve NO.

For all words/phrases: the person or people described in the answer must say the exact words or phrases between the quotes of that respective answer. They must say the total word(s) or phrase(s) with the same exact order and spelling (verb tense and pluralization) of the answer to resolve it to YES. Otherwise, that answer describing someone to say something will resolve NO.

For all subjective options: only I can add subjectively resolved options. I will not bet on these, and base my determinations off official debate polls combined with honest opinions and feelings I hold after the debate. as of now i think walz is gonna cook vance and ill update how i feel in the comments as we get closer to debate.

"Anyone" includes moderators but not the audience (unless specified)

To make the determinations above I will use a transcript of the aired debate in tandem with watching a couple times. Ill resolve within two days of the debate happening.

THIS WILL STAY LIVE THROUGH THE DEBATE AIRING. As the debate happens I will comment potential resolutions I believe to be true and ask if there are any objections. Then I will resolve based on the common truth presented in the transcript, video, and comments.

inspired by jacksonpolack

ask any questions or news you have below!

latest: Tim Walz Says He ‘Can’t Wait’ to Debate JD Vance: ‘That’s if He’s Willing to Get Off the Couch’

VP debate hosted by CBS News set for Oct. 1 between Vance and Walz

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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bought Ṁ3 Vance says "socialis... NO

Please upgrade this market

@PlasmaBallin Come on guys, no way that's happening

@JaredAsh

Walz points to Trump's claims about it as proof that his ticket is extreme. Vance responds by saying it was actually true and that the biased ABC moderators falsely fact-checked it to make Trump look bad. I believe he has already said basically that using the tweet from Chris Rufo as his "proof" that it was actually true.

bought Ṁ25 Answer #ilw8e4md7p NO

Had to bet it down anyway, though, 92% is clearly too high

bought Ṁ50 Answer #ilw8e4md7p NO

Saying that was a mistake and if they are smart, imo they'll just let it pass instead of doubling down on it

@JacksonSipple did everyone else start trying to think of ways you'd unintentionally say a planet? Pluto the cartoon character? 😂

bought Ṁ50 Answer #6oz7o0yr54 YES

@Shrewdan Uranus?

bought Ṁ100 Anyone says "Hillbil... YES

Doubling down on "Hillbilly Elegy" - it's such an easy way for Vance to claim cred and plug his book at the same time.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #kaqadjx65v NO

@CraigDemel ya but why isn't he then doing it on the campaign trail? I think he'll stick with what he's been doing.

@Shrewdan and then I saw the odds and almost bet with you 😂

@Shrewdan Right?? Well, we'll see. I'm not up for tripling down just yet.

bought Ṁ100 Anyone says "Hillbil... YES

@CraigDemel fuck it. I'm in for you ;)

bought Ṁ50 Anyone says "Racist"... YES

People can't resist saying America's favorite word.

@JacksonSipple What are the YES holders hoping for here? John Gray showing up as the moderator?

@FrederickNorris the most powerful nation on Earth

@TiredCliche Mercury rising!

@JuddRosenblatt note this can include "Illegal Aliens"

@JuddRosenblatt I'm an English man in new york

This is like the 3rd place play-off 🥱💤

@Epistemic_Hygiene This isn't how options are usually phrased. You could edit it to something like ""Haiti" or "Haitians" is said by any candidate."

@JacksonSipple Including “earth”?

@JacksonSipple Does it have to be in the solar system? Can it be fictional? Can it be part of a word, like if they say "birth"? If the answer to the first question is "no" and the answer to the third question is "yes", it's almost certain to resolve YES because of Su.

bought Ṁ250 Answer #srd8wd5ydr NO

@StevenK I would object to resolving YES on the basis of, say, an "Alderaan" mention.