When will Trump pass Harris on “electionbettingodds”?
Standard
72
Ṁ35k
resolved Aug 29
RFK Jr. suspends campaign; endorses Trump
100%99.0%
August 23rd to September 1st
0.2%
September 2nd to September 9th (likely to be pre-debate)
0.2%
September 10th to September 30th (likely debate within)
0.1%
October 1st to November 4th (vp debate likely within)
0.1%
November 5th to December 15th (election day within)
0.1%
December 16th to January 5th (electors vote within)
0.2%
Trump never passes Harris (by 0.1%)

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing passing time, exact time of the pass in this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Through analyzing the graph after market creation, if at any 30-minute interval, I determine Trump’s odds have overtaken Kamala by at least 0.1% it will be considered a pass for the point at which the 0.1% or greater Trump lead is shown on the graph.

The first pass since market creation will be the only pass considered in resolving this market.

To further ensure bias has no roll in determining the “official time of the pass” I will not trade in this market.

If Trump odds never pass Kamala (0.1% gap favoring Trump) before the eod (11:59:59 pm EST) Jan 5th 2025, then “Trump never passes Kamala (by 0.1%)” will resolve YES and everything else will resolve NO.

NOTE: each option referring to a specific day have the following rules: 11:59:59 pm EST when it’s the second day mentioned, and 12:00:00 am EST when it’s the first day mentioned in the option.

Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a pass and at what exact moment.

Comment any question or news you have! 💙

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@traders pt 3 is live (Harris up by 3.4% after this debate)

@traders Trump with a 0.9% lead at 4:58:38 pm EST resolves this now.

I think that does it.

yeah that point would resolve this, just gonna wait until the following point is plotted to confirm this point.

I think the following point is plotted already (just not static)?

yeah im seeing Harris’ 5:16 point just not trumps for some reason

Weird, I see both.

it appeared, this will resolve now

No rush and no worries. :)

bought Ṁ390 August 23rd to Septe... YES

Trump leads

yup, just need to wait for the point to be static (could flip back before then)

should be there now

I’ll periodically put market fees back into subsidy for this market until it closes

also, if he causes an early resolution and she passes again by ~1.0%, then I will make a “part 3” market that will be basically identical to this market.

thank you guys so much for trading 💙