This question resolves to "YES" if, according to Eurostat, GDP declined in the EU both in Q4 of 2022 and Q1 of 2023. Eurostat typically publishes a flash estimate of quarterly growth about 45 days after the end of the quarter, but this question will be resolved based on the first consolidated estimate of quarterly growth. Eurostat's indicator release calendar for 2023 is not yet available, but judging from the past (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators/release-calendar?type=listMonth&start=1661983200000&indicator=GDP+and+employment), the estimate for Q1 of 2023 should be available at the beginning of June 2023. I set the closing date of this question to June 30, 2023 to err on the side of caution.
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In the first quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and increased by 0.1% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP had decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU.
It is EU not euro area, so 0.1 increase means no recession and therefore a no resolution.
(I think.)
According to the first consolidated estimate (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/16249744/2-08032023-AP-EN.pdf/30b3811c-f085-b7aa-c533-4733b1457ab9), GDP in the EU as a whole decreased by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, so we're still on track for a technical recession this winter.
https://www.ft.com/content/004faaeb-52d2-4b93-aaf7-01b5a9531a90
Eurostat reported that the EU economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 of 2022, so this should resolve NO.
@Gabrielle Actually, it reported that it had been stable (exactly 0% growth, cf. the table in https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/15725194/2-31012023-AP-EN.pdf/d6c60a83-0dc6-04aa-774d-0fefc772ef68), but that's just a flash estimate and it will be revised in a few weeks. As I explained in the description of the market, resolution will be based on the first consolidated estimate of quarterly growth, which may well be slightly negative given how close the preliminary estimate is.
@phl43 Ah, euroarea versus EU and flash estimate versus consolidated estimate, my bad on that. Love economics reporting...
@Gabrielle Yeah, another factor is that the Eurozone is doing a little better than the EU as a whole, which is not surprising since most EU countries outside of the Eurozone are in Central and Eastern Europe and are more exposed to the crisis.