Will there be a global depression in the 2020s?
24
1kṀ5605
2029
9%
chance

Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

The decrease does not have to happen over one year. Two years of 6% decreases in a row would resolve YES. The market resolves NO if there is a brief decrease which does not show up on the yearly data (for example, the 2020 recession would not qualify, even if it briefly caused 10% GDP decline).

I believe the last historical example of a global depression was 1929-1932.

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For context, since 1980, there have only been two negative years: 2009 at -0.4% and 2020 at -2.7%.

@Gabrielle yes, and both were largely contained by the Federal Reserve if I understand correctly. This Depression can only happen if the Federal Reserve refuses to do so, and if Europe fails to step up

@Siebe

bought Ṁ450 NO

I thought my yes limit order at 10% was aggressive, why are people betting this up to 40% LOL

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