This excludes Alaska, Hawaii, and the individual electors representing Maine and Nebraska's congressional districts.

Market will close on election day, and I will try to resolve within a week of the election, ideally when all states have been called by multiple different news outlets.

Some additional clarifications that will probably not be relevant:

• Corner adjacency doesn't count; UT does not border NM and AZ does not border CO

• If Republicans win zero states in the contiguous 48 states, then this question resolves as YES

• Michigan can serve as a bridge, e.g. if Republicans win MI+WI but Democrats win MN/IL/IA, then WI can still connect to e.g. IN or OH.