Will sophia and allison still be dating at the end of block 3
14
89
270
resolved Feb 14
Resolved
YES

Resolves as expected

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predicted YES

(market creator told me that he defines “still” to just mean the same at the beginning and the end - so YES because they aren’t dating and never were, which is not what the word means, so some could argue this is a misresolve, but whatever)

(they are married though, how else would someone be named allison liao??? clearly impossible otherwise)

predicted NO

@Conflux they are married but """not dating""" and also were never dating for the three months but """yes they are still dating""" seems like a reasonably strong case for NO to me. I don't think most reasonable people would agree that "my friends were still dating" if they were not dating.

predicted YES

@SeraphinaNix look, i once saw a piece of official documentation with sophia and allison liao, and they seem happily married enough to go on dates

(It’s probably healthy to price in some memeresolution risk especially for markets by pic these days, that’s the way it is for now.)

predicted NO

@Conflux I see, didn't know they were known to misresolve markets. Given that, I would have bet differently, but now I know and it's 6 mana so not like I'm broken up about it.

predicted YES

@Conflux i can confirm that sophia liao and allison liao have never been on a date.

allison hung, on the other hand ... 😍

also yakob stop throwing shade at my beloved

predicted YES

@sofa it’s all coming together. you dated allison while her last name was hung. then she assumed her married name, allison liao, but you stopped going on dates :(

I want Manifold users to be aware of whose markets have resolution risk. Sorry it felt a bit mean.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

:prayge: