A suspect must be apprehended, held, and charged, or killed. They don’t need to be convicted in this particular market.
I’ll resolve ‘yes’ if a suspect is apprehended and held for more than 7 days, or is killed, and is credibly, widely believed to be the shooter, even if there are conspiratorial doubts or complications. I’ll go by arrest or death date - if it takes place before January 1, then ‘Yes, before January 1’ will be the resolution. If it takes place after January 1 and before April 1, then ‘Yes, before April 1’ will be the resolution.
The meaningful difference between the two ‘yes’ answers is that one makes the claim that the capture is imminent, and the other makes the claim that capture is eventual or inevitable. There are other markets with other timeline approximations.
I’ll resolve ‘no’ if no credible arrest or death takes place by April 1. I’ll also resolve ‘no’ if a suspect is credibly named but evades capture through April 1.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
A suspect named Luigi Mangione has been arrested
Market will resolve in 7 days if Luigi Mangione continues to appear to be the perpetrator
1,000
3.00Odd to let this kind of photo get out. Or just really strange way to go about things in PA.
@DistinctlySkeptical Longer timeline on this market, leaving room for doubt https://manifold.markets/persimmon/will-luigi-mangione-ultimately-be-t
@Scipio11 I'm closing trading right now so we can figure out the situation. Then we can reopen trading if everyone is satisfied that everything is okay, or close the question if it is broken.
If everyone agrees on the same interpretation, we may be able to just reopen the market. I'm choosing to intervene and close trading before discussing it, because some other recent markets with a similar situation just kept trading for a long time while the resolution details were unknown.
It looks like there are 3 options and the question can resolve to exactly one of them.
The description talks about how to handle the "No" resolution, but it does not state what will happen to distinguish between the other two options.
@persimmon If the suspect is apprehended before January 1, that is also before April 1 -- which answer(s) will resolve to what percentages if he is apprehended before January 1?
@persimmon thanks! I'm hoping that is the clarification @Scipio11 was looking for. Sounds good to me!