Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article?
💎
Premium
125
163k
2025
33%
chance

New York Magazine published an articled purporting to be a first-hand account of being scammed for $50,000. That article is available online here: https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.html

Market resolves to Yes if this article receives an editor’s note or other formal written statement by New York Magazine which materially disavows the article. For the purpose of this, anything which rhymes with “This is an opinion piece and as such we take no position on…” is a Yes. Anything which rhymes with “While certain details could not be verified we stand by our reporting and fact checking process” would not trigger Yes by itself.

Market will default resolve to No on January 1st 2025.

I anticipate that most cases of ambiguity will result in a Yes.

This market is not on truth or falsity of underlying claims or on the processes of New York Magazine before or after publication. It is binary on whether they published an extraordinary statement directly renouncing this article. Most forms of renunciation will round to Yes.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Delivered a talk at Manifest about a journalistic project relating to this market, and subsidized it with 100k mana. You should not read a profit motive into that particular decision.

@patio11 great talk ! ( It should be uploaded to YouTube soon so others can view )

bought Ṁ10 NO

Is there a specific evidence for thinking it will be retracted or is this a gut feeling?

I intend to bet Yes in this market within 48 hours and if you are a No you will make an awful lot of money off of me by setting appropriate limit orders.

I'm not sure the article is implying the existence of "high-value withdrawal rooms." I do think it's unusual that a typical neighborhood branch would have that much cash on hand, but she does not say that she went to her typical neighborhood branch. Are you seeing something I'm not?

> When I reached the bank, I told the guard I needed to make a large cash withdrawal and she sent me upstairs. Michael was on speakerphone in my pocket. I asked the teller for $50,000. The woman behind the thick glass window raised her eyebrows, disappeared into a back room, came back with a large metal box of $100 bills, and counted them out with a machine. Then she pushed the stacks of bills through the slot along with a sheet of paper warning me against scams. I thanked her and left.

:(

@patio11 Trade executed but a) current mental state is more in a keeping promises mode than a win all the mana mode and b) I am putting what I’d describe as reasonable professional effort into an investigation here. (Commentary: price feels really, really high relative to base rates given a written statement from the magazine. But am I buying no? … Not yet.)