Resolves YES if the (singularly) hottest day in August 2023 is August 2nd. Resolves NO otherwise (this includes ties). If the data becomes unavailable for any reason. I will try to resolve this as soon as temperature data for the month is complete (which should be Sept. 1), but will wait no longer than the market closing time (Sept. 2) to resolve.
Will resolve according to: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/json/cfsr_world_t2_day.json
The graph here rounds to 2 decimal places (but I will not be using it for resolution):
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
For quick reference, you can search the JSON for: 17.073,17.038,17.064,17.070
17.070 being July 31.
Question copied from /parhizj/will-august-3rd-be-the-hottest-day
1,000
3.00In the previous month I wondered if you could use GEFS forecasts data to try to predict the CFSR temps, and it turned out then that the absolute numbers would not match (I don't know why) but today I did an analysis with the all the forecasts I collected since then to see if that type of averaging of the GEFS data was still correlated well or not with the CFSR data, and whether it would be at least useful for trends.
The GEFS data has different temperatures (8C) when you do a naive average, but you can do another (linear) bias correction to see that the data does appear to be well correlated, and you can observe the trends fairly well. The green line below is the CFSR record for the month on Aug 2. The yellow dots are the CFSR 2m temps from the question. The orange dots are for the average value for ALL (linear corrected then averaged) GEFS-BC forecasts made previously for this day). There is a lot of spread but keep in mind this also includes +240 hour forecasts for all forecasts I collected. The linear correction I have done is by subtracting GEFS-BC data average for the intersected data, multiplying by a bias correcting factor (fitted through MSE), and then adding the average CFSR for the data period.
From this I expect the end of the third week (Aug 23-25) to be the most interesting days for this question for the remainder of the month.
@parhizj Staying up at 16.95 through rest of month would be quite a further increase in the anomaly. Not impossible with ENSO indexes increasing but seems a faster rise than might reasonably be expected? Perhaps that analysis is better at the timing of the peak anomaly rather than the anomaly value?
@ChristopherRandles Yeah, all I know as of now that it is not a great measure for absolutes only trends. The problem is the year itself is so anomalous so there could be two or three days of improbable increases. Recent forecasts show today and tomorrow as being exceptionally hot. If the 24-25th only show a small increase, I will clamp my probabilities for this to 100%
@ChristopherRandles LOL wish I had seen this before selling a little on the 25th. Good job @parhizj.