To make it simpler, this market is concerning the current petition that has 120 days (not any possible future one).
Resolves YES immediately upon the certification of the (related) recall election results.
Resolves NO at Jan 1 if the Mayor has not been recalled, or, early if either:
(1) the current mayor leaves office early for any reason unrelated directly to the recall process (reigns, steps down, or dies), or,
(2) once it becomes abundantly clear the current petition has failed. For this criterion to be met early the petition or election should fail to get the required votes, and only resolve subsequent to any exhausted legal challenges. For any edge cases, if the current Mayor does not lose power in 2026 directly due a recall election resulting from this current petition then it will resolve NO.
Note I will try to be generous and wait for any potential legal challenges with respect to (2), which may take months, but this market must resolve by Jan 1 2027.
1,000