Will I pass my driving test by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 6

So far I have taken 4 driving lessons and have 8 more booked.

I failed my theory test on the 26th of July. I will update the description when I have rebooked my theory. It is worth noting that the country I live in is very small (<100,000 ppl), so there are not long wait times for booking driving tests.

Resolution clarification: Regardless of how many times I resit my theory or practical, this resolves yes if I pass my practical test on or before the last day of 2023.

Full disclosure: I am motivated to resolve this to yes.

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@optimusprime any updates?


predicted YES

how goes it

predicted NO

UPDATE: I have rebooked my theory test for the 31st of August.

@optimusprime How'd it go?

predicted YES

@optimusprime Update?

predicted YES

Any updates on the situation?

predicted YES

I have a question for clarifications: how many times are you ABLE to attempt the practical test (i.e. do you have the monetary means/time to do it) before 2024?

predicted NO

@Daltonis Cost should not be a problem. The primary issue is time. I am going back to being a full time student (while dropping my hours at work to part time) from the end of September. I will be studying in a large country in Europe. As driving test wait times are likely to be very long there, I am planning to attempt my practical test when I am at 'home', which means I can likely only attempt it during half term and end of the first term breaks.

Betting No for motivation

predicted YES

How soon can you rebook? I believe in you buddy!!

anyone wanna sell their shares to me so my incentives are more aligned with the spirit of the market? - It feels weird to be short this

predicted NO

@optimusprime How do you want to do that ?

@dionisos I can put bids at a certain price and you can execute against them. Or you can set asks and I can execute against those.

predicted NO

@optimusprime I am ok to buy some at the 70%. I will bet against you if you place an order at it so you can sell some of your "no".

But currently I have not much mana. Anyway others will be able to do it too.

@dionisos Just added a 100 mana bid

predicted NO

@everyone if anyone wants to short this in size, let me know and I’m happy to add more bids

i'll bet on this market once you have a YES position

predicted NO

@jojomonsta There isn't enough liquidity for me to close my short with market orders (assuming I don't want to destroy the price and get a bad entry). I have a load of bids in the orderbook, but until someone is willing to take the other side and sell their shares to me, I'm stuck being short lol.

predicted NO

@jojomonsta Alternatively, someone could put some asks in the book that I could execute against, but at the moment, my limit orders are the only liquidity in this market.

predicted NO

Update: Passed the Hazard perception part of my theory. Failed the multiple choice. I needed 43 to pass and scored 38. Will provide another update when my theory is rebooked

I have brought the market down a bit as the probability seemed too high given that I haven't taken my theory yet - I have it in a few hours and so will give an update on whether I pass or fail

if anyone fancies filling my bids so I'm not super-duper short this market, feel free!

Are you planning to retake the test? How long do you have to wait between practical tests and do you have to retake the theory part as well?

predicted YES

retake the test if you fail on the first try ofc
I assume passing e.g. on 3rd try would count as YES resolution of this market?

predicted NO

@jknowak Yes, if I fail either my theory or the practical I will retake as soon as possible (a function of availability of test spots and my personal schedule). Regardless of how many times I retake, if I pass on or before the last day of 2023, this will resolve yes.