The United States gains >10,000 square kilometers of territory before Trump leaves office
10
175Ṁ221
2029
31%
chance

Will the United States gain control of 10,000 or more square kilometers of land that it did not control before Trump's second inauguration, before Donald Trump is no longer president of the United States?

For reference, 10,000 square kilometers is 3,861 square miles, or about half the size of New Jersey. Greenland is 2.6 million square kilometers. Venezuela is 912,000 square kilometers.

This is not about net gain in territory. If the US gains 10k square kilometers of new land but loses some other territory, this still resolves as YES.

The gains do not need to be recognized internationally, but the US must have durable de facto control over the territory for some substantial length of time, as determined by me.

If the US gains 10k square kilometers and later loses it, this still counts as long as the new territory was held for a substantial period of time, as determined by me.

If the United States is absorbed by another country, this resolves as NO, even if the combined entity has 10k square kilometers of land not previously owned by the United States.

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