Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States formally acquires new territory before either China or Russia does. "New territory" means land or maritime areas that become part of U.S. sovereign territory through treaty, purchase, cession, occupation, or other internationally recognized means of acquisition. This includes:

• Acquisition of land territory (e.g., Greenland, Panama Canal Zone, Canadian territory)

• Expansion of maritime claims beyond previously recognized boundaries (e.g., extended continental shelf claims)

• Formal annexation of currently independent or foreign-controlled areas

The market resolves NO if China or Russia acquires new territory before the U.S. does. If neither power acquires new territory by a specified resolution date, the market resolves NO.

Resolution sources:

• U.S. State Department announcements and treaties

• Official government statements from China and Russia

• International treaties and UN filings

• Major news outlets reporting formal territorial transfers

Background

President Trump has proposed U.S. acquisition of Greenland and the Panama Canal, though Denmark has stated Greenland is not for sale and 85% of Greenlanders oppose annexation. The Biden administration added 385,000 square miles of seabed in the Pacific, Atlantic, Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean to an "extended continental shelf" territorial claim, though this represents maritime resource rights rather than traditional territorial acquisition.

Russia has returned 173 square kilometers of territory to Chinese sovereignty on four separate occasions, and China's Ministry of Natural Resources published a map in August 2023 claiming the entire Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island as Chinese territory. However, Russia and China signed treaties in 2001 and 2004 renouncing mutual territorial claims.