"Trillion+ dollar impact" is a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:

1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans

2. Superhuman art; people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art

3. AI generating wholly new science/tech

4. Level 4 self-driving cars fairly ubiquitous

5. Level 5 self-driving cars available in some places

6. (A technological singularity is irrelevant for betting purposes)

In case it's hard to quantify the impact in dollars, the following is a necessary but not sufficient condition for this market resolving YES: I ask friends/family who pay zero attention to AI developments and they are extremely aware of the thing.

Shameless dupe of /dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll