
Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?
Will a US semiconductor fab begin volume production of 3nm chips in 2024?
13
1kṀ406Jan 1
11%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve based on public announcements of volume production. Shameless dupe of this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?
11% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
41% chance
Will the USA have 20% or more of advanced logic chip production by 2032?
50% chance
Will Intel spin-off its foundry business by 2026?
40% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?
19% chance
Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?
22% chance
Will most of TSMC's 2022-existing fabs in Taiwan be destroyed by 2030?
27% chance
Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?
75% chance
Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?
40% chance
[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?
61% chance