Why should the average person care about prediction markets? Hit us with your best one-line argument!

Ṁ190Ṁ70

Apr 2

76%

If the stock market is the best we can do for assessing and forecasting the economy, imagine what you could learn and understand more clearly if you got a bunch of people all putting numeric predictions on anything at all.

66%

Regular news almost never is willing to make an actual prediction about the likelihood of future events, while prediction markets give a reasonable, concrete forecast for popular questions.

50%

If someone is being arrogant and wrong in an argument against you, you can easily demonstrate this by offering to bet against them and ridiculing them when they decline.

50%

"put money where your mouth is"

50%

Life is becoming increasingly unpredictable due to labor mobility, geopolitical instability, etc. It is helpful to have a crystal ball

13%

Resolves 0%

Use logic, analogy, pathos, whatever!

Market context

Prediction Markets General Discussion

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Do prediction markets make the world better?

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Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will Sam think prediction markets are good in 10 years.

49% chance

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

78% chance

Poll: what should manifold do about non-predictive markets

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I’ve been inactive and don’t remember why I created this market or how I decided to resolve it. What do @traders prefer I do?

@oh N/A it (other traders: like for assent)

This should be a bounty where the best answers are given a reward, not a poll where you must pay to add an answer

@CelebratedWhale I considered that, but

a. I wanted people to bet on what would win

b. good/interesting answers essentially get rewarded via trader bonuses

good/interesting answers essentially get rewarded via trader bonuses

Incorrect, controversial answers get rewarded with trader bonuses. If an answer is obviously the best and everyone agrees on this, it goes to 100% right away and nobody else has an incentive to bet on it.

@IsaacKing How should I make this market, then? Also, wouldn’t obviously incorrect answers go straight to 0%?

Also, wouldn’t obviously incorrect answers go straight to 0%?

Yes.

How should I make this market, then?

I think ideally there'd be "add your own answer" polls, but we don't have those. So maybe resolve to the result of a poll you run at market close? Or resolve to your personal opinion.

How should this resolve? To market %?

@oh Making this a whale fight will get it unsubsidized, which will get you fewer answers, so I'm not sure why you'd want to do that?

@IsaacKing Oh yeah good point.

People are also trading

Do prediction markets make the world better?

POLL

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will Sam think prediction markets are good in 10 years.

49% chance

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

78% chance

Poll: what should manifold do about non-predictive markets

POLL

People are also trading

People are also trading

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