Will the Mastodon social network report >3 million "last 6 months active users" in 2023?
22
112
Ṁ1.1KṀ400
Jan 1
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ11 +19%
New probability
84%
The question resolves to YES if https://the-federation.info/mastodon reports a number higher than 3 million during December 2023 for more than a week (and not hacked). If the aforementioned website is unavailable I will attempt a different resolution method / data source.
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Opredicts YES
Well now it is indicating "Last 6 months users: 4.2 million". I'm not sure if it's the best metric to measure Mastodon's network. If there's no objection, I'll resolve positively this coming Wednesday.

Opredicts YES
@o Meanwhile, the Mastodon twitter team reports https://twitter.com/joinmastodon/status/1594121627083493378?cxt=HHwWhMCi8Y_Lup8sAAAA

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