This market resolves YES if the average retail price premium of plant-based meat alternatives compared to their conventional meat counterparts falls below 30% by July 31, 2025.
The price premium will be calculated based on a basket of comparable products (e.g., plant-based burgers vs. beef burgers, plant-based chicken nuggets vs. conventional chicken nuggets) across major U.S. retailers. Resolution will be based on retail price data from sources such as Nielsen, IRI, or academic/industry reports that specifically analyze this price differential.
Source: https://gfi.org/marketresearch/
Background
Plant-based meat alternatives currently command a significant price premium over conventional meat products. Recent data indicates that plant-based options are:
More than twice as expensive as beef
More than four times as expensive as chicken
More than three times as expensive as pork (per pound)
The plant-based meat market is growing rapidly, with several factors potentially influencing future pricing:
Industry Scaling: As production volumes increase, manufacturers may achieve economies of scale that reduce costs.
Technological Advancements: Ongoing innovations in ingredients, processing, and manufacturing could improve efficiency and lower production costs.
Increased Competition: More companies entering the market, including private-label offerings from major retailers, may drive prices down.
Supply Chain Optimization: Improvements in ingredient sourcing and distribution networks could reduce costs throughout the value chain.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if by July 31, 2025, the average retail price premium of plant-based meat alternatives compared to their conventional meat counterparts falls below 30%.
The price premium will be calculated based on a basket of comparable products (e.g., plant-based burgers vs. beef burgers, plant-based chicken nuggets vs. conventional chicken nuggets) across major U.S. retailers.
Resolution will be determined using retail price data from reputable sources such as Nielsen, IRI, or academic/industry reports that specifically analyze this price differential. The Good Food Institute's market research (gfi.org/marketresearch/) will be considered a primary source for resolution.
Considerations
The calculation will focus on direct product comparisons (e.g., plant-based burger patties vs. beef burger patties of similar weight) rather than comparing dissimilar products.
Temporary promotional pricing or limited-time discounts will not be considered for resolution; the focus will be on regular retail pricing.
If no comprehensive industry report on the price premium is available by the resolution date, a representative sample of products from major national retailers may be used to determine the average premium.
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