COVID-19 Pandemic: Will the United States of America (USA) record one million (1,000,000) deaths directly attributable to SARS-COV-2 infection by June 1, 2022?
91%
chance
Jun 1
M$223 bet
Data for this question is drawn from the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html), which uses figures reported by federal and state agencies. As of May 3, 2022, the current official death count is 992,424, and the daily death rate is 331, with a 14-day change of -22%.
noumena

Rachel Shu is betting YES at 73% 15 days ago

noumena

Rachel Shu bought M$20 of YES15 days ago

Pretty clear exponential trend in case counts due to B.A.2.12.1, expect deaths to follow with 2 week trailing indication.
noumena

Rachel Shu bought M$5 of YES15 days ago

As of today, official count is 993,088. 664 deaths yesterday.
noumena

Rachel Shu 16 days ago

As it stands, intuition suggests that deaths would slide under by a few thousand. However, case counts are trending up (+55% in last week), and deaths are a trailing indicator, so the falling trend in deaths may reverse.