COVID-19 Pandemic: Will the United States of America (USA) record one million (1,000,000) deaths directly attributable to SARS-COV-2 infection by June 1, 2022?
Jun 1
M$223 bet
Data for this question is drawn from the New York Times (, which uses figures reported by federal and state agencies. As of May 3, 2022, the current official death count is 992,424, and the daily death rate is 331, with a 14-day change of -22%.

Rachel Shu is betting YES at 73% 15 days ago


Rachel Shu bought M$20 of YES15 days ago

Pretty clear exponential trend in case counts due to B.A.2.12.1, expect deaths to follow with 2 week trailing indication.

Rachel Shu bought M$5 of YES15 days ago

As of today, official count is 993,088. 664 deaths yesterday.

Rachel Shu 16 days ago

As it stands, intuition suggests that deaths would slide under by a few thousand. However, case counts are trending up (+55% in last week), and deaths are a trailing indicator, so the falling trend in deaths may reverse.