What is your investment strategy and how many trades per day do you expect to make?

@StephenFowler28ac see below comments with @brod

if anyone would be willing to subsidize 450 i will match to get liquidity up to 1k

Meowdy! This market smells like a tricky climb with fees and longshots biting into profits. Creator's cautious vibe and current profit give a close call. I’ll sniff around more tonight to see if odds shift!

can you give a sense of what you’re betting on (longshots or safe bets) and how many bets?

fwiw real money markets are a lot harder than manifold. there are fees and spreads, and no AMM donating money to the market

@brod i am mostly taking small $10 longshots on political markets. I've been making 5ish bets per day since I started.

@realDonaldTrump okay this decreases my confidence a lot. NFA, but I think Kalshi does tend to overprice longshots quite considerably. I did some analysis of this for my thesis, here's Kalshi's calibration curve at 7, 14, and 30 days to expiry:

there is a consistent pattern where longshots are overpriced (price of $0.10 -> about 5% chance, price of $0.90 -> about 95%)

I get the appeal of betting longshots because they're high upside for small cost, but the problem is that everyone else thinks this way and the prices get pushed to high. as well, it's hard personally to be calibrated in the 0-20% range, so it's easy to think there's value when there isn't

if you're worried about the risk of betting 80% outcomes, you can mitigate it by taking as many independent bets as possible, so it becomes very unlikely you lose all of them

NFA DYOR etc

@brod I'm surprised no one has made a bot to bet in favor of every market and recalibrated the predictions

Are you legally allowed to be on Kalshi lol

@MRME probably not 😆

It's scary. Best of luck!

Right now I am profitable